Scottie Scheffler is as good as Prime Tiger Woods
...Minus the putting
Scottie Scheffler being in contention on Sunday has become a familiar sight. Also a familiar sight: Scheffler missing short putts and coming up just short.
And yet, Scheffler is the No.1 golfer in the world and has been for over 40 weeks straight. In his career, he’s held that position for over 70 weeks, a total that is sixth all time. With the exception of the odd tournament here or there, he hasn’t putt the ball well. That’s putting it lightly.
How is that possible? How can a player who is poor at arguably the most important part of the game be the best in the world for such a long time?
That’s because during his last season (2022-2023), and for the beginning of this one, Scheffler is playing every other aspect of the game at a historically-great level. He’s playing like prime Tiger Woods…minus the putting.
Yes, it seems a bit ridiculous to compare not even two Scheffler seasons to a career of greatness. A career that includes 15 major championships to Scheffler’s one. A career with 82 wins on the PGA Tour in comparison to Scheffler’s six. Woods equaled or exceeded Scheffler’s career wins in 1999, 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009.
However, the comparison seems less ridiculous once you explore below the surface level. Strokes gained allows us to compare aspects of different golfers’ games such as off-the-tee, approach shots and putting. It looks at each round a golfer plays and averages how many shots a golfer picks up or loses in comparison to the field. The more strokes gained, the better.
After the 2022-2023 season, Scottie Scheffler led the Tour in total strokes gained. He also led in Strokes gained from the tee to the green. The glaring issue: he was 162nd in putting and he lost strokes to the field. He struggled with putts from 4-8 feet, making them only 63.4% of the time, 185th on Tour. These are the pressure putts, the momentum swingers. They are the ones to save par or to make birdie. All of these stats are on a similar trend at the beginning of the 2024 season.
By looking at Woods from 2004-2009 (strokes gained started being measured in 2004), we can see what Scheffler could be if he was a great putter. In five of these six seasons (Woods didn’t play enough to qualify 2008. He still won the U.S. Open), he was first in total strokes gained. He was never lower than fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, leading the category in 2006, 2007 and 2009.
While Woods had more total strokes gained than Scheffler in each of these seasons, Scheffler actually had more strokes gained tee-to-green than Woods in four of the five qualified seasons. In other words, Scheffler was better than Woods against the field until he got to the green.
Woods thrived on the putting surface, and he was always in the top-25 of strokes gained putting. He led the category in 2004 and finished runner-up in 2007 and 2009. Woods didn’t often struggle with those 4-8 footers like Scheffler. In only 2 seasons from 2002-2009 did Woods make these putts at a below-average rate (2006 and 2007). However, his lowest 66.2 make percentage in 2006 was still higher than Scheffler’s last season. He even led the field in 2009, making these putts 78.6% of the time.
Better putting tends to lead to better scoring. From 1999-2009, Woods had a better adjusted scoring average than Scheffler’s 2022-2023 season seven times.
Better scoring leads to more wins. Strangely enough, outside of the wins, Scheffler had very similar finishes to Woods. In the 2022-2023 season, he finished in the top-10 in 17 of his 23 events (74%). This rate is better than five of Woods’ seasons from 1999-2009, and the same as Woods’ 2004 season. This just shows how good the rest of Scheffler’s game is. Even without the putter, he’s almost always in contention.
If he could putt, some of those top-10s may have turned into wins. Scheffler is trending in a similar direction this season. He has finished in the top-10 four out of five times (80%). At the 2024 WM Phoenix Open, Scheffler finished t-3, three strokes behind the winner Nick Taylor. Taylor finished first in strokes gained putting with 8.9 shots picked up on the field. Scheffler finished 44th in this category, with only 0.4 shots gained on the field. Since Scheffler led the field from tee-to-green by almost a full stroke, the putting very possibly kept him from winning.
It’s worth noting that being No.1 in the world for an extended stretch does not equal leading in almost every strokes gained category. In addition to the aforementioned categories Scheffler led, he also led off-the-tee and approaching the green. That’s a total of four categories led.
Woods never led the PGA Tour in four strokes gained categories as Scheffler did. Nobody has.
Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm each had a season in which they led in total strokes gained and strokes gained tee-to-green. However, only McIlroy (2013-2014) and Johnson (2017-2018) led in another stat. All three were also outside of the top-30 in a category.
At the same time, they were all in the top-50 for strokes gained putting. Both McIlroy and Johnson won one more tournament in those seasons (in fewer attempts) than Scheffler did last season.
To further emphasize how important putting is, Luke Donald and Jason Day were both World No.1 largely because of their putting. In 2011, Donald was first in total strokes gained and second in strokes gained tee-to-green. While he was 92nd off-the-tee, he was first putting. Even though he was somewhat weak off the tee, his strong putting led to two wins. This is the same as Scheffler, and Donald played four fewer events.
In 2015-2016, Day led in total strokes gained but was outside the top-10 in every other category, with the exception of being first in putting. He had three wins in 20 events.
Out of all of these players (excluding Woods), only Johnson in 2017-2018 had more total strokes gained than Scheffler last season. Scheffler cleared all of them from tee-to-green.
This just goes to show how historically great Scheffler could be if he was even a decent putter. He is the best or among the best at nearly every aspect of the game, making him comparable only to a prime Woods. However, his poor putting means that he has been unable to separate himself from past World No.1s when it comes to wins. It is difficult to imagine Scheffler getting better than he already is, but he’s only 27-years-old. A Scheffler that can putt would be a terrifying sight for the golf world.
No, he's nowhere near as good as Tiger in his prime. Scottie's 2024 scoring average is 7th on the all-time list. Tiger holds the top 6 spots. Scottie has only 2 major wins, which puts him at T-47 on the all-time list, versus Tiger's 15 majors for 2nd all-time. Finally, Scottie isn't playing the best golfers in the world because LIV has taken the top talent from the PGA Tour. Don't get me wrong, Scottie is a hell of a player, but he doesn't match up to the greatness of Tiger.